Thursday, July 31, 2008

Will the Bright World takeover deal fail?

Bright World Precision down 16.4% at $0.435 on above-average volume, extending recent weakness as investors increasingly worried US-listed China Holdings Acquisition's takeover deal will fail. Latter unveiled $0.70/share offer for stamping machine, metal component maker last week, sending stock to 9-month high of $0.665. But shares down almost 22% since deal announced Jul 22.

"Judging by the share price pattern over the past week, it appears that some investors may not be confident that the deal will go through given the numerous hurdles," says Kim Eng.

Among conditions, Bright World's quarterly, full-year net profits for periods ending Jun, Sep, Dec '08 can't fall by more than 10% on-year; also, not more than one-third of buyer's public shareholders can redeem their IPO shares for cash.

Downgrades on Lian Beng

Westcomb downgrades Lian Beng to Hold from Buy, cuts target price to $0.255 from $0.83 based on sum-of-parts valuation. Lowers FY09-10 earnings forecasts 65%-75% to reflect reduced margins due to rising construction costs, fewer contracts given industry-wide delay in property launches, absence of contributions from group's property development business. Says fiscal FY08 earnings of $11.9 million 50% below Westcomb's forecast.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Kencana Agri

Kencana Agri is an Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) and crude palm kernel oil producer.

Kencana has crude palm oil and crude palm kernel oil plantations in Sumatra and Kalimantan. It also operates a bio-mass power plant on Bangka Island, Sumatra that sells most of the electricity generated to state-owned utility PLN. The group counts India, China, Malaysia and Vietnam among its customer areas. Its crude palm oil and crude palm kernel oil are also sold in Indonesia.

For FY2007, net profit was US$39.2m, more than doubling from US$14.84m the year before. Revenue was US$69.28m, up 69.7% from US$41.1m previously, on increased contributions from plantation and bio-mass business. Most revenue (99.7%) came from plantations, as the bio-mass power plant only started operating in 2007.

The group aims to capitalise on expected strong demand for crude palm oil and crude palm kernel oil by expanding its plantations, building more processing facilities and relying on new technology. It aims to increase its planted oil palm area from 24,349 hectares to over 80,000 ha in the next 5 years. It is also looking to develop complementary businesses. A second bio-mass power plant with generating capacity of 7.5 megawatts is under construction and expected to come on stream in 2009.

On potential risks, Kencana Agri says expansion plans could be scuppered by events beyond its control, such as government policies limiting its ability to obtain adequate rights to land suitable for plantations or an inability to obtain certification. Kencana is in the final process of obtaining certification for 42,640 hectares of land - close to 50% of its total land bank.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Fundamental Analysis on China Zaino

Following the TA, here's the fundamental analysis (FA) on China Zaino.

China Zaino designs, develops, manufactures and sells backpacks and luggage under its proprietary DAPAI brand. According to Frost and Sullivan, DAPAI is the leading brand for double-strap backpacks in China, with a market share of 35.8% in terms of revenue in '06, way ahead of number 2 brand Jinhou which has a market share of 4.3%.

It has won awards including: "Top 500 Asia Valuable Brand Award" and "2006 Top 12 Bags Brand in China".

China Zaino has an extensive distribution network in China, with over 3,000 concessionary retail outlets in 26 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China.

Based on '06 financial figures, the offer price of $0.60 was at a PER of 7.91x. Based on FY08 forecast, the IPO price indicates a post-dilution forward PER of 9.0x. Between FY04 and FY06, its net profits grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 87.7%, from RMB54.8m to RMB193m. For the first 9 months of FY07, it achieved a 56.6% growth.

Demand for bags is robust in the PRC, owing to a growing Chinese population and increased domestic and international travel. Armed with net IPO proceeds of RMB410m, Zaino will be expanding its production capacity to satisfy demand in China.

CIMB forecast a 3-year earnings CAGR of 37% for FY08-10. Their target price is $0.95, set at 7x CY09 earnings, which represents a 50% discount to average valuations for Chinese retailers, in view of the slower growth of the backpack and luggage industry, compared with sporting goods.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Technical Analysis on China Zaino


Technical Analysis (TA) on China Zaino.
China Zaino has been bearish since peaking at $0.64 in 6/08. Has been unable to break above the 10-day Moving Average since then. It's moving in a downtrend channel with supports around $0.35 and $0.32. Resistances around 0.43, $0.46, $0.47 and $0.495.

More TA at SharePortal.

High yield plays

Singapore's resilient, high yield plays look good defensive bet, says CIMB. "High yields, we believe, would be a much stronger argument in a low growth and negative real interest rate environment. Add on the still-present EPS risk, yield becomes that much more attractive," says broker in note. Adds Singapore stands out as comparatively attractive in region as dividend yields far superior to deposit rates.

Says investors can use buy-and-hold strategy or trade dividend ex-dates buying stocks just before ex-date, selling them just after. Notes, Ascendas REIT, Ascott Residence Trust, Cerebos Pacific, Rotary Engineering, SPH as top picks for strong yield, limited downside earnings risk.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

GMG Global looking at African expansion in the long term


Long term, GMG Global is looking at the vast continent of Africa to address shortage in supply of arable land in today's agro-economy. Africa covers more than 20% of the world land area.

For fund managers, other than vast natural resources, Africa's beauty lies in its infancy stage of economic development.

GMG has a market cap in excess of $400 m.

Natural rubber (NR) prices were about US$1,000 a ton 3-4 years ago. Now prices have broken past US$3,000.

A plantation has different stages: not all trees are mature for tapping. Some are getting old and need to be felled while others are still growing. During the first 7 years, the rubber trees are still growing and not yet mature for tapping.

In Africa where GMG operate, costs are denominated in Euro. Rubber is sold in USD and Euro. Thus, appreciation of the Euro inflates their costs. Nevertheless, rubber plantations in Africa are much more lucrative than in Indonesia or Thailand. In the Ivory Coast for example, there is a well-regulated price mechanism set by its government for smallholders and processors to reap the upside of increase in rubber prices.

Demand for synthetic rubber (SR) is 12 m tons a year, compared to 10 m tons of NR. That 55:45 ratio has been stable over the years.

68% of NR goes into automobile tyres. Each group has its unique end users with the exception of car tyre makers. Saloon car tyres are made of both SR and NR.

Yields in Africa are more than 50% higher than in Indonesia. In Indonesia, each hectare yields an average of 1.3 tons of rubber a year.

Smallholders are relatively inefficient; each hectare yields 0.6 tons a year to a maximum of one ton. This is because they do not have prime seedlings, lack fertilizers and may employ an inefficient tapping system. Further, they spend minimal effort in maintaining immature plantations.

In assessing tree yield, other than making sure formulae are comparable, one should adjust for worker productivity and occurrence of brown trees (for which latex supply have dried up).

Source: NextInsight

Friday, July 11, 2008

Apac Coal

I'm really disappointed with Apac Coal and Magnus Energy. Magnus Energy' subsidiary listed on ASX on 10 Jul, but on Apac Coal's website it displayed 8 Jul. No mention was made on this until today!

Response on the IPO has been poor, maybe due to poor market sentiment. 75m new shares at A$0.20 each were offered, but only 35.727m have been issued. Thus just exceeding the minimum subscription level of A$7m. Yesterday, it trading to a low of A$0.13, way below its offer price!

This brings the total number of issued shares to 249,705,637. The listing of Apac would dilute Magnus's equity interest in Apac to approximately 55.78%.

Coal stocks

OCBC, which has Buy calls on Straits Asia Resources (SAR) and Noble, says pullback in coal prices not expected to weigh on Noble as coal accounts for only about 10% of its revenue. Notes impact on SAR's FY08 earnings also immaterial as all of its current-year sales have been contracted. Keeps $2.76 fair value on Noble, $4.80 on SAR.

SAR' FY08 earnings unlikely to be hurt even if coal prices fall further, although outlook for FY09 may be less rosy, says OCBC analyst; "for 2008, they are quite safe because they have locked in pretty much 90% of their contracts. FY09 would be a little bit of a problem since they've only got a very small percentage of coal that they've sold off." But notes, even if coal prices weaken, impact can be mitigated "partially" if production levels increase, "which I think would."

The stock has been falling, as sentiment spooked by sudden fall in coal prices in Europe. Analyst says plunge in spot prices "very strange" as demand remains strong; "it could have been a very large one-party or two-party contract being dumped all of a sudden in the market for whatever reason, causing this spill-over effect."

DMG report on First Resources

The present macro environment as still being conducive for high cude palm oil (CPO) price. High crude oil price around US$140/bbl, high soybean oil prices (around 65 US¢/lb) as well as forecasted growing global demand for palm oil should help support current CPO price at around RM3,400-RM3,500/tonne. USDA estimates global consumption of palm oil to be 40.18m tones for 2007/08, up from 37.17m tones the previous year.

First Resources (FR) is focused on the upstream portion of the industry's value chain and hence can capture the upside of current high CPO prices. This is as evidenced by FR's gross and EBITDA margins of approximately 73% and 70% respectively in 1Q08. EBITDA grew at a CAGR of 56.6% between '04 and '07 and was up 220.2% yoy in 1Q08.

Being relatively new to the oil palm plantation scene, FR has an attractive maturity profile of oil palms. Their weighted average age of plantings is 7 years in FY07, which is classified under the peak production age group. 61% of FR's planted area is in the "prime" category (7 to 18 years) and 11% is in the "young" category. As these "young" trees mature over the next few years, fresh fruit bunch (FFB) and CPO production will rise with minimal increases in costs or capital expenditure.

With the global trend of higher consumption and usage of palm oil and the present high CPO price of about RM3,500/tonne, FR will continue to enjoy the present conducive environment, with its young weighted average age of trees. DMG are reiterating their BUY call and fair value of $1.43 (13x FY08 PER).

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Analysis on GMG Global


Here's the technical analysis (TA) on GMG Global.

The upper band A'B' of the uptrend channel provided support at $0.195. This also coincided with the long white candlestick on 28/4. This is bullish as GMG had retraced less than 50% of its surge from $0.135 to $0.24. From there, it broke out of its Pennant Formation and began its next leg up. MACD is showing a golden crossover and RSI is displaying positive divergence. Resistance is set around $0.27 in proximity to the upper band C'D'.

Jaya

CLSA downgrades Jaya Holdings to Underperform from Outperform as stock had breached its unchanged target price of $1.60. Says no potential for time being to upgrade shipbuilder's earnings forecasts; "we fear that the company's earnings will actually be coming under pressure with an expected oversupply of AHTS vessels in '09 that will have a negative effect on charter rates and vessel prices." Adds margins will also be hurt by rising raw material costs.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

FerroChina

Credit Suisse is arranging a US$200 m loan for SGX-listed steelmaker FerroChina to refinance debt and for other corporate needs, banking sources said Tue. The 3-year syndicated loan will offer 450 basis points above the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), one of the sources briefed on the deal told Reuters.

FerroChina, which makes galvanised steel in China, is widely seen as a takeover target after it appointed Merrill Lynch as an adviser to look at strategic options for the firm. FerroChina was not immediately available for comment.

"In current market conditions, this should be bearish news as US$200 m will add to gearing," said a dealer at a local broker. "Previously the firm also issued some convertible bonds, so market investors may view it as negative news because of its over-gearing, and it looks like their debt-level is pretty high."

FerroChina's long term debt-to-equity ratio is 0.19, which is higher than most other SGX-listed steel firms. In May, Chinese media reported that Australia and Russian firms are eyeing at least a 20% stake in the China-based company.

Li Heng

UOB KayHian starts Li Heng Chemical Fibre Technologies at Buy with $0.845 target, implying 5.6X FY08 P/E, 5.2X FY09 P/E. Notes, maker of high-end nylon fibre products emerged as one of biggest players of its kind in China, with annual production capacity of 92,400 tons in '07, earnings CAGR of 107.6% over FY04-07. Expects company to benefit from sound domestic presence, strong brand image, economies of scale, high bargaining power. But forecasts lower earnings CAGR of 21.3% over '07-'10, based on assumption gross margin will gradually weaken due to rising raw material costs, more intense competition.

First Resources

The palm oil maker has a US$500m investment plan to raise production and buy plantation land amid an ongoing palm oil boom. The company has about 180,000 hectares (ha) of plantations concentrated in Indonesia's Riau province, and is looking to purchase at least 50,000 ha within the next 18 months in Kalimantan or Irian Jaya.

First Resources CEO Ciliandra Fangiono said the company expects world consumption of palm oil to grow by 5% next year and that palm crude oil prices would stay firm at above US$1,000 per tonne. The firm is planting on 87,500 ha of its existing land, and wants to add 10,000 ha of planted land every year, Mr Fangiono said.

But land acquisitions will likely come outside its base in Riau. The company aims to buy plots of at least 50,000 ha in size to justify building facilities such as mills and cut transportation costs.

Mr Fangiono said First Resources, whose key crude palm oil customers include Wilmar International, will fund its expansion mainly through existing cash, at US$185m as of end-Mar, and excess cash flow from sales.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Albedo

Albedo has proposed a Reverse Takeover (RTO) by HealthTrends Medical Investments Pte Ltd (HTMI). According to Wikipedia, a RTO occurs when a publicly-traded smaller company acquires ownership of a larger company. It typically requires reorganization of capitalization of the acquiring company. In the event the larger company is not publicly traded, the RTO results in a privately held company becoming a publicly held company by circumventing the traditional process of filing a prospectus and undertaking an IPO. It is accomplished by the shareholders of the private company selling their shares in the private company to the public company in exchange for shares of the public company.

The entire purchase consideration for the Proposed Acquisition is up to a maximum of $400m, to be satisfied by the issue of new shares at an issue price of $0.25 per Share will be payable in two tranches. The first tranche of the purchase consideration amounting $280m (Initial Purchase Consideration) will be payable on Completion. The second tranche of the purchase consideration amounting to not more than $120 m will be dependent on the net profit after tax attributable to shareholders of the Pro forma HTMI Group for FY ending 31/12/08.

The HTMI Group is a regional healthcare enterprise providing integrative medical, aesthetics and wellness care services. To date, it has an extensive network of over 100 owned and affiliated medical clinics, aesthetics, specialists, wellness centres, and operations across Asia, i.e. Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Beijing, Bangkok and Jakarta.

The core segments of HTMI's healthcare expertise, services and products include:

  • Primary Medical Care, with emphasis on the prevention and treatment of chronic and degenerative diseases;
  • Specialist Medical Care, which focuses on day surgery, oncology, orthopaedics, eye, spine care, physiotherapy and pain management;
  • Aesthetics and Lifestyle, with special focus on beauty and skin care, body contouring, clinical grade cosmetics, weight management as well as medical spa treatment and services; and
  • Medical Wellness Care, for the provision of scientifically accredited wellness care products and diagnostics with particular focus on health screening and clinical nutrition.

FTSE ST China Top Index

A new FTSE ST China Top Index tracking the 20 largest China stocks listed on SGX has been launched. To be eligible for inclusion in the new index, companies must have either at least 30% ownership by the Chinese government, companies or nationals; or derive at least 50% of revenues from China.

The existing FTSE ST China Index, with its larger basket of 50 component stocks, will continue to act as a general market barometer of the state of China companies listed here.

Both the FTSE ST China Index and the FTSE ST China Top Index will offer opportunities for the creation of and investment into China index-linked products, including exchange traded funds (ETFs), structured products and other derivatives.

The list of stocks is below:
BIO-TREAT TECHNOLOGY
CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST*
CHINA AVIATION OIL (S) CORPORATION
CHINA ENERGY
CHINA HONGXING SPORTS
CHINA SKY CHEMICAL FIBRE
CHINA XLX FERTILISER
COSCO CORPORATION (S)
DELONG HOLDINGS
EPURE INTERNATIONAL
FERROCHINA*
FIBRECHEM TECHNOLOGIES
HONG LEONG ASIA*
HSU FU CHI INTERNATIONAL*
MIDAS HOLDINGS*
PACIFIC ANDES*
PEOPLE'S FOOD HOLDINGS*
SYNEAR FOOD HOLDINGS
YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING HOLDINGS
YANLORD LAND GROUP*

* Stocks not included in the FTSE ST China Index

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Stock Challenge

I read about the Stock Challenge on Next Insight. The gains the participants made are no big deal. Some use margin, some not. Those who trade on margin are at an advantage.

The rules are not clear. But I assume can only trade SGX stocks and not warrants. I shall unofficially enter the contest. I'm confident that at the end of the Challenge, I can beat them :-)